Ukrainian political situation

Easter on the Streets of Kyiv

The conflict between 'orange' and 'blue' has always existed and it never calmed down since 2004. Ukrainian people got a chance for a change. And all those who supported Orange Revolution hoped that the new power will fulfill their dreams and hopes. But it did not happen. Too many conflicts arose inside of the orange team. All conflicts were about power. Nobody wanted to give up their ambitions


By OKSANA POTAPENKO
from Kyiv, UKRAINE


If someone who had witnessed what was happening in Ukraine at the end of 2004 unexpectedly appeared at the Independence Square in Kyiv (Ukraine) again, he would probably get a confusing feeling of déja vu and surprise - the whole Square is full of people like it was more than two years ago but the colors changed from orange to blue and red. No, these are not the same people that scanned "Yushchenko! Yushchenko!" under the orange flags in 2004, but those who have opposite political views and prefer blue-and-white symbols. I myself had such a feeling for several seconds when I first saw a crowd while heading to my office, but it disappeared quickly - the people who are blocking the traffic in the center of Kyiv are different from those in 2004. They do not seem satisfied and happy.

What is happening in Ukraine for almost two weeks? Why so many people celebrate Easter at the streets of Kyiv? How long will they stay there? These and many other questions arise in the heads of those who have at least a slight interest in Ukraine.

Government

The conflict between 'orange' and 'blue' has always existed and it never calmed down since 2004. "Orange" president got his power when Kuchma and his surroundings could not ignore opinion of the people any more. Victor Yushchenko became Ukraine's President in January, 2005 after a sharp political resistance which attracted eyes of people from all over the world to Ukraine.

Ukrainian people got a chance for a change. And all those who supported Orange Revolution hoped that the new power will fulfill their dreams and hopes. But it did not happen. Too many conflicts arose inside of the orange team. All conflicts were about power. Nobody wanted to give up their ambitions.

The majority of fights were around the position of Prime Minister of Ukraine who got many powers after the Constitutional reform came into force on January 1, 2006. In the first year of Yushchenko's presidency two governments were dismissed (first managed by Yulia Tymoshenko and second by Yuriy Yekhanurov). And finally Yushchenko's main rival at the Presidential elections'2004 Victor Yanukovych was appointed a Prime Minister. The whole country was in a deep shock - both Victors betrayed their voters signing a joint Memorandum (later Yushchenko recalled his signature but it did not change the Prime Minister).

Victor Yanukovych formed the Cabinet of Ministers. There were only four ministers from the orange team - Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Defense, Minister of Internal Affairs, and Minister of Youth, Family and Sports Affairs. (Later the two last Ministers were fired.) At present the Cabinet consists of the Ministers from Yanukovych's team and Ministers of Foreign Affairs and of Defense are the only people from Yushchenko's team as this is the President's Constitutional quota.

Parliament

After a year of Yuchshenko's rule nothing in the country changed for better. People were observing conflicts in the orange team and got more and more disappointed. And the new elections were coming up - on the last Sunday of March, 2006 Ukrainians had a right to chose who will represent their will in the Parliament. All orange politicians were asking people to be patient as it appeared impossible to make any changes as long as the old team remained in the Parliament. They also asked to make the right choice at the day of elections.

It is important to note that it was the first time when proportional election system was used in Ukraine (earlier it was mixed). Orange team represented by Victor Yushchenko (President and honored leader of the party "Nasha Ukraina"), Yulia Tymoshenko (leader of her block), and Olexander Moroz (leader of the Socialist party) decided to lead their forces to the Parliament separately.

On March 26th, 2006 Ukrainians made their choice. Only five parties and blocks passed the necessary 3% level of the votes and made it to the Parliament. The leaders were obvious: Party of Regions (leader - Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych) - 32.14%, Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) - 22.29%, Block "Nasha Ukraina" - 13,95% (Socialists and Communists got slightly more than the necessary 3%). All the representatives shared 450 sits in the Parliament in accordance to what they got at the elections.

It is soon became clear that none of the political parties or blocks had an absolute majority (300 members) necessary to get over the President's veto, possibly make changes to the Constitution etc. A real battle for each Member of the Parliament started. The Parliament even failed to elect its Speaker. And all of a sudden another shock for the orange team and all the people that supported Yushchenko and Tymoshenko - Olexander Moroz leaves the team of "Nasha Ukraina" and BYT, signs a coalition agreement with the "Party of Regions" and communists and with their help becomes the Speaker of Parliament. Media would later state that Olexandr Moroz betrayed Orange Revolution and the hopes of people that were standing at the Independence Square in 2004.

On July 13 Yulia Tymoshenko and her block officially announced that they went to opposition to the Parliament's majority. Later Tymoshenko openly declared that she would do everything possible to convince the President to dissolve the Parliament. The Parliament's majority (coalition) has been working at getting 300 members. They already had communists and a few socialists. A number of the Members of the Parliament from "Nasha Ukraina" and BYT joined the coalition. All of them stated different reasons for such a step. The last drop was when five more deputies joined the coalition at the end of March. Tymoshenko said that these people were bought for $10,000,000 each, the deputies in their turn stated that they became tired of Tymoshenko's management and that they wanted to work but not to block the tribune in the session hall of the Parliament.

Conflict

All these events resulted in President of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko to sign the Decree dissolving the Parliament on April 2. There are two official reasons for such a decision of the President: a) the current situation in Parliament does not correspond to the choice people made in 2006; b) it is necessary to avoid power usurpation.

And here it started. The leaders of the parties-members of the parliamentary coalition say that the President had no reasons to dissolve the Parliament. They appeal to people to support them till the Constitutional Court reviews the case and makes the decision. And therefore many of those who support the coalition go to Kyiv and are ready to remain on the streets up to the day the Constitutional Court makes the decision whether the President's decision to dissolve the Parliament was legitimate.

Yulya Tymoshenko and Yuriy Lutsenko, the leader of people's movement "Samooborona" ("Self-protection"), ex-Minister of Internal Affairs ask their supporters to not go to the streets and keep on living in their normal way. The only party which would not listen is PORA which people were the first ones to put up tents at the central Kyiv street Khreshatyk in 2006. Representatives of PORA remain near the President's Secretariat and the Central Election Commission.

BYT and "Nasha Ukraina" have already announced the start of their election campaign, while their rivals say they will not do anything till they see the Court's decision. (Although there are many rumours in the media that Yanukovych and his supporters started to prepare for the elections as well).

The parliamentary coalition keeps on working as it would not accept the President's Decree. Those who stayed in the Parliament keep on voting for laws. Besides, they dismissed the Head of the Central Election Commission and appointed the ex-Head of the Commission Serhiy Kivalov who escaped from Ukraine after Yushchenko became President as he was accused of falsifying elections' results (the case is closed now as there is no enough evidence). Nevertheless these decisions are ignored as the Parliament is dismissed.

For now there are two possible ways out - to either convince President Yushchenko to re-call the Decree or to wait for the decision of the Constitutional Court. So far Yushchenko clearly stated that he will not re-call the Decree for any reason. So the only way out is to wait what the Court says. And the Court has time till the end of April.

If the Constitutional Court decides that President Yushchenko had the reasons to dissolve the Parliament, the new elections will take place on May 27th, 2007.

Till that time people with blue-and-white and red flags will stay on the streets - they have already settled their tents at the Independence Square and in the parks near the buildings of Parliament and Cabinet of Ministers. They also have representatives near the President's Secretariat and the Central Election Commission together with PORA. Everything is peaceful and quite so far.