Before Serbian elections: a view from outside

Blackmail Europe

Boris Tadic needs every vote he can get in the second round of presidential elections on 3 February. PM Kostunica supports his pro-European coalition partner - but on his own terms only


By NORBERT RUTSCHE & MARZENA ZUCHOWICZ
Story from Cafe Babel (published on Feb 1, 2008)


Serbian prime minister Vojislav Kostunica is trying to blackmail pro-European presidential candidate and current incumbent Boris Tadic. Kostunica will only support his coalition partner in the second ballot if he gives up his increasingly pro-European agenda. Tadic has so far dismissed this demand. Critics warn that Kostunica will attempt to form a coalition with the ultranationalist radicals instead.

Kostunica's nationalist-conservative Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) has suggested that Tadic's pro-Western Democratic Party (DS) alter the existing coalition agreement. This agreement states that Serbia is ready to sign the drafted EU stabilization and association agreements (SAA). However, the text also commits the Serbian government to immediately invalidate the SAA if the EU carries out their planned civil mission in Kosovo and breaches the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) agreement.

Kosovo Independence? No way

All coalition partners oppose Kosovo's independence and share the view that the deployment of an EU mission requires a decision by the UN Security council. However, Tadic's DS party isn't prepared to let the Kosovo argument affect Serbia's chances for European integration, which is exactly what Kostunica is demanding.

This means that Boris Tadic is now faced with a dilemma: if he wants to win the expected neck-and-neck race on 3 February against ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS), he needs the support of the increasingly euro-sceptic prime minister Vojislav Kostunica. According to data from the Independent Centre for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID), Tadic won 35.4 percent of the vote in the first elections on the 20th of January 2008, while Nikolic won 39.4 percent.

If Tadic does agree to the suggested changes to the coalition agreement, he risks scaring off would-be voters, most importantly those from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the small, pro-Western opposition party led by Cedomir Javanovic. He is dependent on them for an election victory. He needs to show his own voters and EU politicians in Brussels that he is serious about a fast approach to Serbia joining the EU. Tadic has suggested that the presidential election is more like a referendum for or against the EU. He warns that the election of Nikolic would mean a return to the shadows of the 90s under Slobodan Milosevic.

'No alternative to Europe'

Tadic is fully aware of the difficulty of this situation. He is leaving no-one in any doubt about his pro-European commitments. Without directly mentioning Kostunica's blackmail attempt, he said at an election speech, 'I will not allow anybody to set conditions for Serbia's European future and for the future of our children. There is no alternative to Europe.'

This is why political observers don't think that Tadic will agree to Kostunica's offer. The president needs to make a decision, Marko Blagojevic of the non-governmental centre for free speech and democracy (CeSID) tells the Beta news agency. And it is only logical for him to 'appease his pro-European target group.'

Tadic's opponent doesn't just object to an affiliation with Europe on principle; he also favours a closer partnership with Moscow. In this respect, he is on the same wavelength as PM Kostunica, described as a 'Russophile' by The Economist's Belgrade economic expert Misa Brkic.

Parliamentary delegate Nenad Canak, whose small, pro-Western 'League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina' is supported by Tadic, accused Kostunica of acting against his coalition partner and attempting to dissolve government. It is obvious that the DSS 'want to form a coalition government with the radicals,' said radio programme B92. The goal of this coalition would be to 'trade a civilised world for one supported by Russia.'

On 25 January 2008, Serbian infrastructure minister Velimir Ilic signed a billion dollar energy agreement between Russia and Serbia in the presence of Tadic, Kostunica and President Putin. The two countries agreed on the building of the gas pipeline 'South Stream' through Serbia by the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom. In return, Russia now owns the majority of the Serbian gas company, NIS, which was formerly controlled by the Serbian government. This has strengthened Russia's influence in the European energy market. Critics accuse the Serbian government of selling NIS at far too low a price as a way of thanking Russia for its support in the Kosovo conflict.


(Published: 10.02.2008.)

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