Referendum on Lisbon Treaty

The Irish "No"

This result seems somewhat irrational, having in mind that Ireland is the country which has benefited most from its EU membership. It has endured great change - from the small and poor country it was in 1973 it turned into the "tiger" it is today. Now Ireland takes the second place on GDP per capita - 146 compared to 100 for EU average according to Eurostat. A recent survey of Eurobarometer shows that 82% of the Irish think that the EU membership is beneficial for their country


By SILVIYA NITSOVA
from Gabrovo, BULGARIA


The Treaty of Lisbon is meant to reform the European Union by making it able to successfully face new challenges and tackle problem issues much faster and much more effectively. It must be ratified by all 27 member states in order to come into force. According to its national ratification procedure Ireland held a referendum on the Treaty on the 12th of June. On the 13th the result was clear - 53.4% of the Irish people, who went to the urns the previous day, voted with "No".

This result seems somewhat irrational, having in mind that Ireland is the country which has benefited most from its EU membership. It has endured great change - from the small and poor country it was in 1973 it turned into the "tiger" it is today. Now Ireland takes the second place on GDP per capita - 146 compared to 100 for EU average according to Eurostat. A recent survey of Eurobarometer shows that 82% of the Irish think that the EU membership is beneficial for their country. How come, then, the Irish voted with "No"?

What are the reasons?

The Irish people had to vote a treaty - a legal document which they had not read, understood or even heard of. Around 22% of the Irish, who voted with "No", point out the complexity and vagueness of the Treaty as a main reason for their negative vote. On the one hand they have the right to understand what is going on in the Union. On the other hand the Treaty itself cannot be made comprehensible to all because it lays down the complicated legal basis of a complicated supranational organization such as the EU. The non-precedential nature of the Union, consequently the one of the treaties it is based on, makes it unique and difficult to comprehend. It is not the job of the people to understand the tricky legal language, but the job of politicians and media who have to make it sound clear and understandable to all.

Many No-voters saw a threat in the face of the Treaty that Ireland will no longer remain neutral and "national". The Irish MEPs cast light on these two significant issues during their campaign in favour of the Treaty. Obviously the campaign against the Treaty turned out to be more persistent, convincing and in the end - more successful.

The Irish referendum comes to show the broad dimension of democratic deficit. People see the EU as a bureaucratic machine - red tape is everywhere and no one seems to care about this. Europe has to listen to the Irish and try to stay more close to its citizens.

What do we have now?

21 member states have expressed their sovereign will and ratified the Treaty. Poland, Germany and Finland are in the final phase of completing the ratification process. Sweden, Spain, Italy, Belgium and the Czech Republic have not ratified the Treaty yet. Ireland has rejected it. The future depends on the countries which are about to ratify the Treaty. The UK and Cyprus became the first two EU states to ratify the treaty in question after the Irish No vote. Although the Polish parliament has ratified the Treaty, it still needs the president's signature. President Lech Kaczynski, however, expressed his intention to sign the Treaty only "if the Irish change their mind". The Czech Republic is considered to be the most problematic EU state after the Irish No vote. Last week the Czech government advised the country's Constitutional Court that the EU's Lisbon treaty did not violate the Czech Republic's own constitution. The future the Treaty depends largely on the ruling of the Czech Constitutional Court. Germany is undergoing the same procedure - a ruling on the compatibility of the Lisbon treaty with the German constitution from its High Court is expected in the coming months.

Is the Irish No a street with a dead end?

On the summit held the week after the referendum (19-20 June) EU leaders have decided to continue the ratification process, despite the Irish negative vote. Irish prime-minister Brian Cowen gave a promise to present a report in October, suggesting a working formula to pull the Union out of the sticky situation. The leaders also committed themselves to finding a way forward and overcoming the problem together without exerting pressure on the Irish. The European Parliament called for the ratification process to continue.

Several are the possible outcomes. A re-run of the referendum is optional but it does not give any guarantees that the result will be different. If Ireland gives its second red card to the EU, then the Lisbon treaty will be officially dead. Another way out is to ensure the sovereignty of Ireland by attaching a protocol to the Treaty, without changing the text of the Treaty itself, and giving Ireland an option of opting-out on certain sensitive issues. The idea to negotiate the whole text again has to be rejected as absurd. Everything that could possibly be negotiated was negotiated and the Lisbon treaty is the final product. The German and Portuguese presidencies have put great efforts, time and enthusiasm into bringing the various and often contradictive interests of all 27 member states into line. Now nothing more can be done.

No future enlargements?

The impact of the Irish No vote on future enlargements of the EU cannot be other but negative. According to French president Nicolas Sarkozy, whose country took the EU presidency on the 1st of July, and German chancellor Angela Merkel the bloc cannot afford to accept new countries. European Parliament president Hans-Gert Pöttering also considers future enlargements impossible, although he presumes that Croatia can join the European family even without the Treaty of Lisbon coming into force. Most of the new member states which joined the EU in 2004 and 2007, however, have a different view. As the decision on accepting a new country is taken unanimously, it is very likely that there will not be any future enlargement until a treaty, which reforms the institutions and the decision-making procedure, came into force. So, for the better future of the Union and the candidate countries it is essential that the Lisbon treaty come into force as soon as possible.


(Published: 10.07.2008.)