Trading or political war of Russia and Ukraine

There is nothing new in the East

It is not a secret that Ukraine sees its strategic future in the EU and NATO, and not within the Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet republics). According to that, Moscow thinks that it is normal for Ukraine to apply the same rules like all other Europeans. Three years ago, then President of Russia Vladimir Putin was talking about nonsense that his country finances, from its own budget, Ukrainian closing to the West


By MARKO ANDREJIĆ
from Belgrade, SERBIA


As well as three years ago, history is repeated - more than half of Europeans have spent their New Year's holidays by listening to the news about possible termination of the delivery of Russian gas and being afraid of their cold flats. The cause of their worry is the same again: Russia has stopped with delivering gas to Ukraine, and Ukraine - to all the others... Just in 2007, there was a similar problem with Belarus.

Serbian daily newspaper "Politika" claims that one high representative of the Czech Republic, the chair-country of the European Union since the beginning of 2009, said that "here is not a word about economics anymore, this is a political question and should be handled that way". Just to remind you, the official reason for the Russian-Ukrainian energy dispute is the price of gas and previous debts from Kiev. Until December 31, 2008, price of gas supplied to Ukraine from Russian monopolist "Gazprom" was 180 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Since January 1, Russians rate the price of 450 dollars. Ukrainians claim they are not able to pay so much and threaten that, in this case they will have to raise the cost of transport. After numerous negotiations without success, Russians have fully suspended the delivery of gas, which affects the whole Europe and the European Union had to intervene in the negotiations between two former Soviet republics.

After the statement of Czech official, there were many theories about "the real reasons" for the Russian-Ukrainian dispute that slowly becomes a regular "New Year greeting". It is not a secret that Ukraine sees its strategic future in the EU and NATO, and not within the Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet republics). According to that, Moscow thinks that it is normal for Ukraine to apply the same rules like all other Europeans. Three years ago, then President of Russia Vladimir Putin was talking about nonsense that his country finances, from its own budget, Ukrainian closing to the West.

Also, the economies of Russia and Ukraine are very strategic linked since the Soviet time, and Kremlin certainly uses this fact to prevent the departure of neighbors under the auspices of NATO. The so-called trade war is one of the stronger options, and gas is one of the powerful weapons. There is an additional factor - the fact that Ukraine is still divided inside the country about aspirations towards the East and the West, a division that is more and more dangerous. For the country itself, but also for the neighborhood. Slobodan Samardžija considers that the current "cooling of Europe" is only one manifestation of this status.

Although Vladimir Putin has accused Western media that they were not objective about the crisis, a German newspapers almost one-sided conclude that the energy dispute is much more political than economic misunderstanding. "Suddeutsche Zeitung" writes that Gazprom status as a Russian state company certainly requires the approval of Vladimir Putin before it gets into some sharp business arrangements with the Ukrainian state gas company Naftogaz. And Putin, allegedly, still need a few things to agree on with his "buddy" Yuschenko. But Naftogaz is also state-owned company which influences political decisions too, and in that way it can easily become a subject of manipulations to produce Western solidarity with Ukraine. They conclude that Yuschenko's goal is still the same: Ukraine in NATO and the EU.

Right-wing "Die Welt" writes that Russia is using its monopoly over natural gas once more, as a weapon for payment of debts, but also to deter the West from reception of Ukraine in NATO. And "Frankfurter Algemeine Zeitung" which is usually described as a right-center papers, believes that any escalation of gas conflict occurs more suspicions that Russia is really concerned about debt collection and market price of gas to Ukraine. More and more it seems that the Kremlin is using the opportunity to make long-term damage to Ukrainian image in the West, with hope that the Ukrainians will give up the efforts to become a member of the EU and NATO in the close future. "Moscow hopes their statement that Ukraine is stealing gas will turn Europeans against Kiev. But Europeans have been very reserved in their reactions. Because they failed to get Europeans on their side, Moscow has apparently decided to intensify the conflict by stopping of the delivery of gas. Whatever side you choose, the fact is that this is a presentation - that the Europeans will pay the price for supporting Ukrainian leaders which are criticizing Moscow."

Some analysts put the question: what would happen today if Ukraine may be in April in Bucharest, or two months ago in Brussels, have received a ticket for NATO? Would they accept new, higher price of gas in that way, and how would they pay for that, as well as debts for already delivered gas? Is there a possibility that Europe would maybe pay for Ukrainian debts?

According to development of this crisis, it seems that Europeans accepted the suggestion from Russia, that their partner, as the current Ukrainian government is, simply is not needed. It is too demanding, and have too little to offer. And perhaps the most important thing - a view from Kiev is more looking towards Washington than towards Brussels, and that skiping makes Europeans nervous because they do not need any political satellite of big powers, neither Russia, nor the United States.

The European Union assumed the role of intermediaries, but primarily because of desire to protect itself and avoid the collateral damage in the form of millions of Europeans left without heating once again, during the New Year holidays, in the middle of winter and with the temperatures far below zero. We still have to wait and see who will make a positive bank account, and who is better political player on the long run.


(Published: 10.01.2009.)