Climate predictions

False alarm about mini Ice age

"Despite cool temperatures over most of the Arctic Ocean in January, Arctic sea ice extent continued to track below normal." This means that the alleged states about mini ice age are far from truth


By LJILJANA SAMARDŽIĆ (ljiljana.samardzic@wavemagazine.net)
from Sombor, SERBIA


Mr. Mojib LatifDuring UN's World Climate Conference in 2009 Mr. Mojib Latif, a climate expert at the Leibniz Institute at Kiel University in Germany, held a speech about climate predictions, which were concluded from his research. However, New Scientist, along with few others medias, reported that Mr. Latif research shows that we are entering new little ice age, which is supposed to last for next 20 or 30 years. With reports, speeches, surveys available online even laics could see that words of Mr. Latif were misinterpreted. After this misquoting, he gave a statement in which he refutes his alleged conclusions and sayings.

Next decade turned into several decades

The confusion was about a final line of the abstract: "Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming."

First of all, the scientist said that this "may" happen, which means that this climate phenomenon is not something that will surely happen. There is only a possibility and lots of factors might influence on the final result. Secondly, the author said "over the next decade" and that, somehow, turn into "decade or two" and even "several decades".
Besides, Mr. Latif said that "we don't trust our forecast beyond 2015" which means that their model is not precise when it comes to one specific year.

Global warming on hold

Arctic iceThe National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that "sea ice extent increased at a fairly steady rate in the early part of the month and then slowed towards the end of January. A brief slowdown in ice growth is not unusual during winter." In comparison to January of few past years "ice extent averaged for January 2010 was the fourth lowest for the month since the beginning of satellite records".

It is also concluded by analyzing data from last three decades that "the summer Arctic sea ice melt season now lasts nearly a month longer than it did in the 1980s. A later start of freeze-up and an earlier start to the melt season both contribute to the change." Those statements refute the headlines that brought confusion among settlers of the Earth which tend to make us believe that global warming will be shortly postponed. According to Mr. Latif, the warming had been only slowed down and acceleration might happen again in period between 2015 and 2020:

"We did only forecasts for the time until 2015. However, if we look further, then we have some indications that there are after, say after 2015 or 2020, you know, global warming will accelerate again."

So, the global warming is not postponed, stopped or anything alike. Due to natural fluctuations it happens only to be on hold for the "another 10 years or so".


(Published: 09.02.2010.)